Year One vs. Year Two: What 2 Years of Real STR Performance Data Shows

Year one is just the warm-up. We pulled two years of real performance data from a portfolio of professionally managed short-term rentals — same homes, same quarters, one year apart — and the pattern is impossible to miss. Revenue, occupancy and RevPAR all climbed once the listings had time to build reviews, ranking and momentum.

The reality check

Short-term rentals take time to perform at their best

Investing in a short-term rental is tempting for the short-term profits. But the data shows the first 12 months usually deliver modest results. Gone are the days when you could buy a home, throw in some furniture, and expect instant profit.

That is not a reason to avoid the asset class. It is a reason to underwrite it correctly. Growth and revenue come with time, consistency, and momentum. If your year-one pro forma assumes year-three performance, you have set yourself up to feel like you failed at something that is actually working exactly the way it should.

The headline

Data at a glance

Across the portfolio, here is the average growth from Year 1 to Year 2:

Those are portfolio averages. The individual homes below tell the story with more teeth — because when a listing goes from a 34% occupancy quarter to an 88% one, “+20%” does not begin to cover it.

Proof, not promises

Property snapshots

Four real Utah short-term rentals. Each one compares its first 90 days on the market to the same 90-day window one year later — so seasonality is held constant and the only real variable is time.

Source: portfolio performance data, 2024–2025. ADR = average daily rate; RevPAR = revenue per available room.

Read it closely

What the numbers are actually telling you

Look at the Park City home. The nightly rate barely moved — $1,305 to $1,427, about 9%. Occupancy is what changed: 34% to 88%. That single lever nearly tripled the quarter’s income. Year one was not a pricing problem. It was a visibility problem, and visibility is earned.

Then look at the downtown Salt Lake home in Q2, where the nightly rate was lowered from $535 to $355 — and revenue still went up more than five times over. That is not a discount, it is a strategy. Early on, bookings buy you reviews, and reviews buy you ranking. Once the listing has both, the rate can climb back up with the calendar full behind it.

Here is what is really happening between year one and year two:

• ●Reviews accumulate. A listing with a deep review history converts at a completely different rate than one with a handful.
• ●Search ranking improves. Platforms reward booking history and response consistency. New listings start at the back of the line.
• ●Pricing gets smarter. After a full cycle, rates are no longer a guess — they are set off the property’s own demand data.
• ●Operations get dialed in. Photos, amenities, listing copy, minimum stays, cleaning turns — every one of those gets refined with real guest feedback.
• ●Repeat and referral guests show up. Year two is the first year a property gets to benefit from year one’s guests.

The bottom line

The takeaway: slow start, strong finish

• ●STR growth takes time. In the first 90 days and the first year, expect modest results and budget for them honestly.
• ●Momentum compounds. Year two and beyond is where stronger occupancy, revenue and RevPAR show up.
• ●Consistency wins. Regular management, visibility, and operational discipline are what actually move these numbers.

If you are one year into a short-term rental and the returns feel underwhelming, you are not behind. You are on schedule. The homes in this study looked exactly the same at that point — and then year two happened. What separates the properties that climb from the ones that stall is not luck or the market. It is whether someone is actively working the listing every single week while that momentum builds.